Fisher begins reign in Tallahassee as FSU opens year against Samford

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/01/2010 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jimbo Fisher era in Tallahassee begins this weekend, as the 20th-ranked Florida State Seminoles open up their 2010 football season against the Samford Bulldogs.

Legendary coach Bobby Bowden's reign at FSU has come to an end and it will be up to Fisher to return the Seminoles to college football glory. The team did complete its 33rd straight winning season in 2009 and participated in its 28th straight bowl game, but a change was needed at the top to get the Seminoles back in the national title picture. With a solid nucleus returning, Fisher may just have the pieces necessary to do just that in his first season in charge.

Samford is an FCS program playing out of the Southern Conference. The team struggled in 2009 to a 5-6 overall record, including a 3-5 mark in its second season in the SoCon. The team returns 15 starters from last year and the hope is that Pat Sullivan can lead the Bulldogs to new heights in his fourth season at the helm.

This is just the second time that these two teams have ever meet. The first meeting took place 60 years ago, resulting in a 20-6 FSU win on October 14t, 1950 in Tallahassee.

Offensive consistency was certainly a problem for the Bulldogs in 2009, as the team managed just 19.7 ppg on a modest 306.6 yards of total offense. Junior QB Dustin Taliaferro is back to run the offense, after completing 59.2 percent of his passes, for 1,692 yards. However, his TD total (9) matched his interception total (9) and he will need to get better in that area if the Bulldogs are to make strides forward in 2010. Junior wideout Riley Hawkins may be the top option down the field, as the 5-10 187-pounder hauled in 34 balls last year, leading the way in receiving yards (638) and TD catches (four). The top offensive performer and the go-to-guy on this side of the football however, is senior tailback Chris Evans. The 6-0, 215-pounder led the team with 1,152 yards rushing last season, with seven TDs. He was also a valuable asset out of the backfield, pacing the team with 38 receptions and is an FCS All-American candidate.

While Samford's offensive struggled, the defense certainly held its own, limiting foes to just 17.5 ppg. A feverish pass rush was definitely a strength, with 28 QB takedowns. Senior DE John Michael Clay is the top playmaker along the line, leading the team with six sacks. Veteran leadership is found in the linebacking corps as well in senior MLB Bryce Smith (team-high 102 tackles, 11.0 TFLs, four INTs), who is clearly the defense's top performer and could garner All-American honors as well in 2010.

There wasn't much wrong with Florida State's offense in 2009, as the team averaged just over 30 points per game and did so on a balanced 421.4 yards of total offense. This year the team returns nine starters on this side of the football, including standout QB Christian Ponder. One of the top signal- callers in the nation, Ponder completed nearly 70 percent of his passes last year, for 2,717 yards, despite missing the last four games with a shoulder injury. Ponder will get one more chance to return FSU to football glory.

"I came into this program having high expectations. I wanted to compete at a national level and I expected to compete at a national level. That's something that has driven me. I've been given a great opportunity to try and change that. It's my last year and I'd like to get us back to that level."

The hope was that Ponder would have a slew of talented playmakers on the outside and while he still will, junior wideout Jarmon Fortson (45 receptions, for 650 yards, four TDs) was released from the team in the summer. The cupboard is far from bare in the receiving corps however, as juniors Bert Reed (60 receptions, 710 yards) and Taiwan Easterling (35 receptions, 442 yards, two TDs) will try to assuage the loss of Fortson. The ground game should see similar success in comparison to last year (149.5 ypg), spearheaded by the rushing exploits of junior Jermaine Thomas (832 yards, 5.1 ypc, nine TDs). A real strength for FSU is along the offensive line, where all five starters return, including All-American Rodney Hudson (6-2, 282) at left guard.

Not only did Bowden call it a career, but so did longtime defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews. Mark Stoops (formerly at Arizona) takes over this side of the football and will be charged with getting back to what the FSU faithful expect from a Seminole defense. They didn't find it a year ago, as Florida State allowed 30 points per game, while getting gashed for just over 200 yards rushing per outing. Gone are standout defenders like LB Dakoda Watson and CB Patrick Robinson, but players like LB Kendall Smith (85 tackles) and DE Markus White (38 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, two sacks) provide a good base to work with. The secondary is a bit of a concern though, as only one starter returns in the form of senior CB Ochuko Jenjie (team-high four INTs).

Fisher is impressed with how far the defense has come in such a short time under Stoops.

"We have done a tremendously better job not giving up the big plays. It is hard to find big plays on these guys. You have to really stick balls in holes or someone has to break a tackle and run hard. They are being very sound in what they are doing, and that is the first thing. You have to get that foundation down first. But the way they have played with not giving up big plays and playing very disciplined has been the most impressive in a short amount of time."

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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