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08/02/2010 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Prince Fielder recorded his first career five- hit game, drove in five runs and scored twice in Milwaukee's 18-1 drubbing of the Cubs in the first of three meetings at Wrigley Field.
The Brewers, who had scored eight total runs during their five-game skid coming in, posted a season-high 26 hits, 22 of which were singles.
Corey Hart celebrated signing a three-year contract extension on Monday by going 4-for-7 with three runs scored and an RBI, while Ryan Braun came across the plate three times and drove a pair in in a five-hit effort.
Casey McGehee went 2-for-5 with three runs scored, a homer and four RBI, and Rickie Weeks knocked in three in the rout.
Yovani Gallardo (10-5) was overshadowed by the run support, matching a season- high with 12 strikeouts while allowing just two hits, one walk and one run over a six-inning start to pick up the win.
Randy Wells (5-9) was knocked around for seven runs -- six earned -- on 10 hits in four-plus innings for Chicago, which has dropped six straight.
The Brewers had one hit over the first three innings, then erupted from there.
Braun and Fielder each singled to open the fourth and trotted home when McGehee sent one deep over the center-field wall. The next three hitters recorded singles, and Weeks drove in a pair for a 5-0 cushion.
The Cubs got their only run in the bottom half, as Starlin Castro led off with a double and later scored on an Aramis Ramirez groundout.
Wells was pulled after putting the first two hitters on in the fifth, and Justin Berg had little success in relief, walking Jim Edmonds to load the bases before Alcides Escobar singled home a run.
Ramirez's throwing error allowed McGehee to score two batters later, and Weeks notched an RBI groundout before Hart and Braun added run-scoring singles.
McGehee scored again in the sixth on an Escobar base hit off Casey Coleman, then hit a sacrifice fly following Fielder's RBI single in the seventh, pushing the margin to 13-1.
Fielder came up with the bases loaded in the eighth and greeted Brian Schlitter with a gapper to right, clearing the bases.
Braun and Fielder put the finishing touches on their five-hit games with run- scoring hits in the ninth.
Game Notes
Cubs manager Lou Piniella, in Tampa, Fla. on personal business, will return to the bench on Tuesday...Each Brewers starting position player had at least one hit...Castro had two of Chicago's four hits...Milwaukee did not match its season-high for runs (20), accomplished against the Pirates on April 22.
<< Casey Coleman makes it 3 generations in majors
CHICAGO (AP) -Chicago Cubs reliever Casey Coleman made his major league debut on Monday night, making his family the fourth to have three generations play in the big leagues.Coleman, who was called up before the game, entered in the sixth inning. He
<< Indians hold off Red Sox for third straight win
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shelley Duncan went 4-for-5 with two RBI and a
run scored as the Cleveland Indians held off the Boston Red Sox, 6-5, in the
opener of a four-game set.
Shin-Soo Choo drove in two runs while Jordan Brown score
<< Braves return home with win over Santana, Mets
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chipper Jones homered in support of Tim
Hudson's six innings of work in Atlanta's 4-1 victory over New York in the
first of a three-game set.
Jones blasted a solo shot in the seventh inning to tie
<< Wells, Blue Jays hang on to down Yanks
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vernon Wells doubled, homered and drove in two,
as the Toronto Blue Jays held on for an 8-6 win over the New York Yankees in
the opener of a three-game series.
The Blue Jays scored seven runs in the fifth i
Cahill tosses shutout as A's top Royals >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trevor Cahill threw the first shutout of his
career as the Oakland Athletics took a 6-0 win over the Kansas City Royals in
the first of a three-game set.
Cahill (11-4), who also recorded the first complet
Safina moves on in California >>
Carlsbad, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Russian Dinara Safina was a straight-set
winner in first-round play Monday at the $700,000 Mercury Insurance Open.
Safina cruised in the first set before prevailing in a tough second set,
beating
Indycar >>
Fined Helio Castroneves $60,000 and placed him on probation for the remainder of the year for his actions during the July 25 race at Edmonton.
Padres dig reeling Dodgers deeper hole in NL West >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chase Headley and Will Venable each hit a
three-run homer, as the San Diego Padres took a 10-5 win over the Los Angeles
Dodgers in the opener of a four-game series.
Headley finished 4-for-5 for the NL We
MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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