Favre says he's considering playing again

Football Betting Lines

06/15/2009 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Making his first public appearance since retiring from the New York Jets, Brett Favre said Monday night he's considering playing again, this time for the Minnesota Vikings.

Favre spoke on the new HBO show "Joe Buck Live" and said he had surgery 2 1/2 weeks ago on his throwing arm, but indicated his status on returning hinges on how the arm heals. He said Dr. James Andrews told him it would be 4-to-5 weeks before knowing if the surgery was successful.

"If it's not up to par when the time comes, then you can't play," said Favre, who also noted he's throwing the football now.

Favre said he met with a Vikings trainer on Sunday to work on different exercises.

"It makes a lot of sense because the pieces are in place," Favre said of possibly playing for the Vikings. "They do have a great running back (Adrian Peterson), a great running game. If I go there, there are no guarantees. We all know that. I went through that last year with New York."

Favre played for the New York Jets last season, but was hampered by a torn biceps tendon. He then announced his retirement, for a second straight season and was then granted his release by the Jets.

Quarterbacks Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels are battling for the Vikings starting job, but that was before Favre entered the picture.

The three-time MVP ended a very brief retirement in the summer of 2008 and was traded by Green Bay to the Jets, helping them to an 8-3 start last season. But Favre and the team stumbled over the final five games, as the Jets finished the campaign with just one win to conclude the season at 9-7, missing the playoffs.

The Jets selected USC quarterback Mark Sanchez with the fifth overall selection in the NFL Draft and subsequently released Favre, who reportedly wanted to become a Viking before the Packers traded him to the Jets last offseason.

Favre spent 18 seasons in the NFL and starred for 16 years with the Packers, who acquired him from Atlanta before the 1992 season. He threw four passes in two games with the Falcons, who had selected the Southern Mississippi product in the second round of the 1991 NFL Draft.

The ultimate gunslinger, Favre was a seven-time All-Pro and was selected to 10 Pro Bowls, including this past season with New York. He left the game as the NFL's all-time record holder in several categories, including wins by a starting quarterback, passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions and consecutive games started.

Favre completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 65,127 yards with 464 touchdowns and 310 interceptions. He led the Packers to a pair of Super Bowls, winning his lone title after the 1996 season in a 35-21 victory over New England. The Packers lost to Denver in the Super Bowl the following season.

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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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