Favored Connemara draws rail for Lane's End Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/25/2010 - Florence, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saturday's $500,000 Lane's End Stakes, Turfway Park's signature race for three-year-olds, will have 10 Kentucky Derby hopefuls break from the starting gate. The 1 1/8-mile event comes five weeks before the Run for the Roses.

Leading the field are a pair of colts trained by Eclipse Award winner Todd Pletcher. Pletcher will have 9-5 favorite Connemara leave from the inside post and Doubles Partner will break from the favorite's immediate outside.

Pletcher won the Lane's End in 2001 with Balto Star and in 2005 with Flower Alley.

Connemara will be ridden by Russell Baze who has been aboard the chestnut colt the last two starts. Owned by Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, and Mrs. John Magnier, Connemara is coming off a win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields last month.

The three-year-old was second to Ranger Heartley in the California Derby at Golden Gate two months ago. Connemara has won three of four career starts for $147,800.

"We're not ruling out the Derby for him," Pletcher said, "but we're really not looking beyond this race. "He liked the track at Turfway when he broke his maiden, so this looks like a good spot for him. He has trained on dirt and turf, but synthetics seem to be his preferred surface. If he does well, whether he goes in the Derby would probably depend more on how he did training at Churchill following the race."

Doubles Partner will have the services of Chris DeCarlo as rider. The colt is 10-1 in the morning-line and will be making his initial stakes appearance.

"This will be a step up for him," said Pletcher, "but he did beat Lentenor in his last race, and Lentenor just came back to be fourth in the Florida Derby. (Doubles Partner) is a WinStar (Farm) horse so he's spent a lot of time training at Keeneland and he seems to like the synthetic."

Doubles Partner won his last start, an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in February. He has earnings of $59,723 with two wins in five starts.

Ranger Heartley, winner of the California Derby, has drawn post five for the race and is 6-1 in the program. Trained by John Sadler, the gelding will be ridden by Michael Baze for the first time.

The Lane's End will be the fourth meeting between Ranger Heartley and Connemara. The series stands at two wins for Connemara and one for Ranger Heartley.

"We're looking for another chance to keep him on the Derby trail, and we wanted to keep him on the synthetic, so we decided to take him out of town," said Sadler. "It wasn't that smooth last time (in the El Camino Real), but he's been training forward since that race. I'm not concerned about the distance (of the Lane's End) but he likes to be on the lead, so it depends on what kind of trip he gets."

Ranger Heartley has four wins in 10 starts for owners David and Herb Alpert. Most recently fifth in the El Camino Real Derby, the three-year-old has career earnings of $122,440.

Here is the complete field for the Lane's End in post position order: Connemara, Russell Baze, 9-5; Doubles Partner, Chris DeCarlo, 10-1; Chief Counsel, Francisco Torres, 12-1; Kettle River, James Lopez, 8-1; Ranger Heartley, Michael Baze, 6-1; Outlaw Man, Alex Solis, 8-1; Northern Giant, Calvin Borel, 5-1; Letsgetitonmon, John McKee, 20-1; Dean's Kitten, Cornelio Velasquez, 5-1 and Vow to Wager, Victor Lebron, 20-1.

The Lane's End Stakes has a scheduled post-time of 5:12 p.m. (et) and will be shown live on the USA Network along with the Louisiana Derby.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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