Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/09/2012 - Dubai, United Arab Emirates (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rafael Cabrera-Bello fired a nine-under 63 Thursday to grab a two-stroke lead after the first round of the Dubai Desert Classic.
Cabrera-Bello, whose lone tour title was at the 2009 Austrian Golf Open, birdied nine of his first 11 holes before cooling off. He parred the final seven holes.
Marcel Siem and Scott Jamieson share second place at minus-seven. Siem was in the first group off the first tee on the Majlis course at Emirates Golf Club on Thursday. He dropped his approach shot into the water on the 18th and that led to a closing bogey.
World Nos. 2 and 4, Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer, both shot six-under 66 and headline a group of seven players that are tied for fourth place.
Cabrera-Bello started on the back nine Thursday and got off to a quick start with birdies on the 10th and 11th. He again converted back-to-back birdie efforts from the 13th to move four-under through five holes.
The 27-year-old Spaniard continued his fine play with a birdie on the 16th. He followed that with birdies on 17 and 18 to grab a piece of the lead at minus- seven.
After Siem moved ahead with a birdie on No. 17, Cabrera-Bello converted a birdie chance on the first to again move into a tie atop the leaderboard.
Cabrera-Bello made it five in a row as he birdied the second. That gave him the outright lead at minus-nine. Surely, he had thoughts of carding the first 59 in European Tour history at that point.
"Just for a second after the birdie on No. 2, I tried to do the math on what I needed for 59. Then I told myself to stop being foolish and don't be too greedy," Cabrera-Bello admitted. "Nothing wrong happened -- there were some tough holes to come and I didn't drop a stroke."
Not only did he not drop a shot, but Cabrera-Bello parred his final seven holes.
"It's a really, really good score, but in itself it means nothing. If you want to stay grounded, you think of how many leaders of the first round win the tournament," said Cabrera-Bello. "I know I have to play really, really good just to have a chance."
Siem flew up the leaderboard with five birdies in the first 10 holes, including a chip-in birdie on the sixth. He settled in with four pars in a row from the 11th.
The German poured in three straight birdies from the 15th to soar into the lead at minus-eight. He had a chance to end at nine-under, but his approach splashed into the pond short, right of the green at the 18th. That led to a closing bogey.
"I hit it pretty solid today. I thought it was one of my best rounds of golf ever," Siem stated. "I didn't make any stupid mistakes. I had a lot of good chances and made the putts too."
Jamieson had a bogey-free round with just two birdies on his opening nine. Around the turn, he birdied the 11th, then jumped to minus-five with an eagle on the par-five 13th.
The 28-year-old Jamieson birdied 15 and 18 to join Siem at minus-seven.
McIlroy and Kaymer were joined in fourth place by Thomas Bjorn, Richard Sterne, Nicolas Colsaerts, Gregory Bourdy and Romain Wattel.
Mark O'Meara, the 2004 winner, is tied for 20th at minus-three. Defending champion Alvaro Quiros opened with a two-under 70. Fred Couples, the 1995 champ, is among a large group of players tied with Quiros.
NOTES: McIlroy, Kaymer and Wattel were the only players in the top 10 that were in the afternoon wave...Stephen Gallacher had a hole-in-one on the par- three 15th, and is tied for 20th with O'Meara and world No. 3 Lee Westwood.
<< Lewis, Kemp lead in LPGA opener; Tseng lurking
Victoria, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stacy Lewis and Sarah Kemp both posted
four-under 69s on Thursday as the 2012 LPGA season kicked off with the first
round of the Women's Australian Open.
This season also began much like last sea
<< Rockets G Lowry leaves game
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Rockets guard Kyle Lowry left
Wednesday's game against the Portland Trail Blazers with a strained right
elbow.
The injury occurred late in the third quarter after Lowry's follow-through
<< Rockets hold off Blazers
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Goran Dragic filled in for an injured Kyle
Lowry and scored all 10 of his points in the fourth quarter as the Houston
Rockets downed the Portland Trail Blazers, 103-96.
Lowry, who left the game late
<< Henrik Sedin may miss Thursday's game with ankle injury
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vancouver Canucks captain Henrik Sedin may
miss Thursday's game against the Minnesota Wild after injuring his right ankle
on Tuesday.
Sedin took a shot off his right ankle early in the first period of Tu
Ferrero will open for Nadal-less Spain >>
Oviedo, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning champion Spain will begin defense of
its Davis Cup title with a 2012 opening-round tie against Kazakhstan this
week, as the festivities will get underway Friday with a singles rubber
between
Devils hope to stay on a roll versus the Blues >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The red-hot New Jersey Devils will try to extend their
longest winning streak of the season to six games tonight, when they host the
St. Louis Blues at the Prudential Center.
The Devils, who are coming off Tuesday's contro
Stars aim to get right against hapless Blue Jackets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Columbus Blue Jackets are playing for pride, the
Dallas Stars have stumbled as of late in their chase of a postseason spot.
The Stars hope to break out of their scoring slump and get back on the winning
track thi
Flames hope to stay hot in Phoenix >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Needing a big two points on Wednesday night, the Calgary
Flames turned to pair of Finns to get the job done. The Flames aim to jump
into the playoff picture this evening and stop the Phoenix Coyotes' three-game
winning streak
In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season. On the clock: the NFC North
Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
To visit this sportsbook get to MySportsbook.com for all your online sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting